I have been following a really interesting discussion on the CSAE Conference Group on LinkedIn over the past few days.  Bud Crouch, who will be leading the 2009 Governance Summit, asked association professionals to weigh in on what they think associations will look like five-to-six years from now.  His own thoughts (which I think are pretty spot-on) can be found in this article.

I thought it would be fun to play the not-for-profit prophet for a moment and weigh in on what I think a successful association will look like in the not-so-distant future. 

So here’s my take:  I think that while tactics will evolve and achieving success will become more of a challenge than ever before, the things that will take an association to the top and keep it there will be the same as what they are now:  In my version of the future, differentiation, innovation, value and engagement will continue to be the factors that make or break not-for-profits of all shapes and sizes. 

While the basic rules will remain the same, I agree wholeheartedly that the game is changing.  Based on what I’ve been seeing and hearing, here is how I think things might evolve:

Customized Membership

Associations will have to battle ever-harder for a shrinking number of members in the face of competition from other associations, online networks and resources, and private sector providers.   The survivors will be those who are truly able to stand out from the crowd by being able to deliver value in a world where the term means something different to each member. In order to provide a unique experience that members can’t replicate elsewhere, membership and all that it involves will become more customizable. 

New Revenue Models

The increased competition from the sources mentioned above, particularly from the internet and social media are allowing people to access networks and resources without having to pay a membership fee. Associations will increasingly have to give away for free a lot of what they have until now leaned on as their main sources of revenue.  Some real outside-of-the-box thinking will be needed to help associations figure out how to generate enough revenue to continue with their mandates.

Flatter, Less Hierarchical Structures

The key to achieving differentiation will be in the hands of associations that do more than just pay lip service to the term “putting members in the driver’s seat.”   

In the for-profit world, the traditional organizational structure looks a lot like a triangle with the company leadership at the top and the customers at the bottom.  In the not-for-profit sector, this triangle should be turned on its head because the members are the de-facto owners of the association (associations can’t exist without their members).  The reality is that many of today’s not-for-profits continue to imitate the for-profit environment and adopt a top-down governance approach.

The democratic and transparent nature of tools like social media will help to tear these traditional structures apart.  Jeff Decagna in this very relevant session at ASAE over the summer suggested that association ‘leaders’ will become the stewards or caretakers of their associations and that governance will go from being inside-out to “outside-in.”

As an extension to his, I would add that members truly will become the leaders of their associations and dictate in a more direct way than ever before what the association is, where it is headed and what its priorities will be. 

Evolution of Volunteerism…and Engagement

Volunteerism has been on the decline for awhile now.  The reality is that people are busier than ever before and have more things competing for their time.  Bud Crouch suggests that volunteerism in the future should address these challenges by being “fast, flexible, focused and fun.” 

I would add that social media will be a great tool for the innovative association looking to achieve the above.  Beyond this, I also think the markedly ‘un-linear’ and transparent nature of this medium has real potential to help boost engagement among all stakeholder groups, from members and volunteers to staff, board members and donors.

Transparency Will No Longer Be An Option

As social media moves more into the foreground, non-transparency just won’t be an option anymore.  When associations mess up, they will have to face the music.  If you haven’t followed the Kiva.com saga, this charity is a great example of how social media makes this happen.  Here’s an article on the debate from the New York Times.

The Great Age Divide

The baby boomer generation is retiring and this will continue to have a significant impact on not-for-profits.  All of the stakeholder groups will start looking a lot younger - from association staff, board members to volunteers and donors. 

Helping members to attract ‘young blood’ to their industries, adjusting to the new leadership styles of a younger generation, and finding ways to transfer tacit knowledge between seasoned executives and young leaders are just some of the challenges associations will face in this arena.

So What Say You?

I've given my two cents, now it’s your turn!  Put yourself in the shoes of the all-knowing Prophet to Not-for-Profits for a moment. Look into your crystal ball and let us know what you see!